We did it, everyone! Another regular season in the books. I did end up making the playoffs, so to avoid the wrath of the fantasy football gods, I will not be making any playoff predictions, and for the duration of the playoffs, I will put aside my writing. That should give me time though to compile my version of a large post-season breakdown, including things like a final look at the performance of this season's keepers, possible keepers next year, and a final version of the dream team.
Going into the playoffs before my short hiatus, I'll take a look this week at what transpired last week and run the numbers on my special power rankings script to compare with Yahoo's take. I think a bit of objective power ranking reporting without much outside commentary should hopefully keep the fantasy gods at bay and give me a shot this year.
Last Week's Analysis:
A lot of the potential movement we looked at last week hinged on Ja'Marr SteepleChase fumbling at the goal line, but they did not deliver in that respect for the fantasy crew. Their opponent City of Love also didn't put up much of a fight, barely "beating" Wushu Waddle out for worst performance of the week at a round 79 points.
Speaking of not putting up a fight, Wushu Waddle didn't seem to understand the assignment in the final week, paving the way for a strong Darnold QB1 victory in an almost identical outcome. Darnold QB1 almost had everything go their way this week, hitting all the right chances except the most important one: SteepleChase losing. Darnold QB1 did everything that was in their control, both winning and putting up quite a few points, and none of the other 6-7 teams got a win to keep them out besides SteepleChase. 4 more points and the loss from SteepleChase was the final piece needed for that wild comeback. Though it wasn't enough to make playoffs, they did secure the bye in the consolation bracket and have officially avoided the Hen this year.
While Darnold QB1 needed to beat Jamarr SteepleChase in particular this week, their true nemeses are probably actually Lamarathon Runners and Pole Vaulter's Chubb, who both snuck into playoffs with <1600 point totals. Three teams this year ended the season with >1700 points, which is more than 120 points a week on average, with Purdy Good Olympics maxing out at 1782.4 (127.3 average). Next, two teams were in the 1600s, each around 1650 (~117.9 average). Everyone else besides Dak's Track Attack was in the 1500s, Dak's Track Attack caboosing with the only 1400s score at 1432.45 (102.3 average), at least still above 100 I guess.
I'm having deja vu this week looking at my own playoff matchup, with Pole Vaulter's Chubb getting an immediate rematch with Pukaing Up Seine Water. Pukaing Up Seine Water won last week in an ultimately unimportant match, swapping seats with Pole Vaulter's Chubb just to end up in the same 4th vs 5th matchup anyway. We'll see if Pole Vaulter's Chubb gets to even it out in the one that really counts.
Power Rankings:
Yahoo:
Playoff Teams:
1. Pukaing Up Seine Water (378.87)
2. Purdy Good Olympics (367.85)
3. Yusuf DiKelce (348.89)
4. Ja'Marr SteepleChase (337.82)
5. Pole Vaulter's Chubb (332.28)
10. Lamarathon Runners (318.20)
Consolation Teams:
6. Darnold QB1 (331.76)
7. City of Love (328.33)
8. Wushu Waddle (320.66)
9. The 49ers Gold Medal Miners (319.65)
11. Rachaad White & Blue (317.01)
12. Dak's Track Attack (282.66)
* Bigger numbers better
Wow. Looking at those rankings, 5 of the 6 playoff teams are in the top 6 of power rankings here, with the last having the most luck I've seen in fantasy football. It looks like it's going to be a tight race. Lamarathon Runners is the obvious outlier when looking at ranks, but the projected points are actually pretty tight, especially in those middle positions.
It does look like Dak's Track Attack will very likely end up with the Hen this year, being soundly in 12th for the power rankings, but all it takes is one good week to avoid that trophy, so everyone should stay vigilant down there.
My Script (Fantasy Pros Rankings for Starters):
1. Pukaing Up Seine Water (157)
2. Purdy Good Olympics (229)
3. Yusuf DiKelce (260)
4. Darnold QB1 (290)
5. Wushu Waddle (372)
6. Lamarathon Runners (376)
7. Rachaad White & Blue (382)
8. The 49ers Gold Medal Miners (398)
9. Pole Vaulter's Chubb (418)
10. Ja'Marr SteepleChase (426)
11. City of Love (460)
12. Dak's Track Attack (610)
Wow. Looking at those rankings, 5 of the 6 playoff teams are in the top 6 of power rankings here, with the last having the most luck I've seen in fantasy football. It looks like it's going to be a tight race. Lamarathon Runners is the obvious outlier when looking at ranks, but the projected points are actually pretty tight, especially in those middle positions.
It does look like Dak's Track Attack will very likely end up with the Hen this year, being soundly in 12th for the power rankings, but all it takes is one good week to avoid that trophy, so everyone should stay vigilant down there.
My Script (Fantasy Pros Rankings for Starters):
1. Pukaing Up Seine Water (157)
2. Purdy Good Olympics (229)
3. Yusuf DiKelce (260)
4. Darnold QB1 (290)
5. Wushu Waddle (372)
6. Lamarathon Runners (376)
7. Rachaad White & Blue (382)
8. The 49ers Gold Medal Miners (398)
9. Pole Vaulter's Chubb (418)
10. Ja'Marr SteepleChase (426)
11. City of Love (460)
12. Dak's Track Attack (610)
* Smaller numbers better
Well, it looks like at the top (and the very bottom) things are very well aligned, with the first three spots and the last spot exactly the same. My model does think that Lamarathon Runners are not as far behind as Yahoo does, but does think so for Pole Vaulter's Chubb. Some of that difference, at least for Pole Vaulter's Chubb might come down to the very late season RB acquisition possibly changing fortunes quickly. The final playoff team is seen as the weakest of the contenders, even behind Pole Vaulter's Chubb. I think some of this one comes down to a difference in methodology, which I'll theorize on more here.
Yahoo uses expected points from their model to decide power rankings. This means the difference between the top WR and a benchwarmer or perennial waiver wire player is approximately 6-8 points. My model uses the ranked ordering of a consensus ranking site, where the top WR would count as 1 point in a golf score scheme, while that same benchwarmer might be the 150th overall player. This punishes teams for even a few spots being filled with waiver wire level players (though it only punishes for starter spots, since you have to play them, which means having benchwarmers on your bench is totally fine).
So a team like Ja'Marr SteepleChase, with the WR1 overall and a top RB, but also a lot of bench-level players starting will reflect those "empty" spots more than the top performers. This model seems to weigh consistently good teams over teams that rely on a couple of great players. I think this means that overall it's fair to say that Ja'Marr SteepleChase and those types of teams are maybe sort of okay with the ability to blow up on any given week. That also seems like a fair assesment of a team which hasn't had a weekly score between 110-130 since Week 5. Lucky for this team, they've really seemed to blow up a lot recently, so they only need 3 more of those now.
The final big difference between the models is that I leave out kickers and defense. Unless bye weeks are counted (which shouldn't matter this late in the season anyway), kickers all seem to project 9-10 points no matter what anyway, so I don't think they contribute much to Yahoo power rankings as it is. Defenses are often streamed though, and often vary between 5-10 projected points total. A couple weeks of 5 point differences if you haven't begun streaming your playoff defenses might make a bit of difference in the models. In the end, these are probably small when considering points like Yahoo, but could make a big difference when ranking. My model removes that variance, which probably actually brings it much closer to Yahoo's model.
Final Words Before Playoffs:
Okay, there you have it everyone. Not much movement in the final week, with the key piece Ja'Marr SteepleChase ultimately holding their ground and their playoff spot. Even though the power rankings I had already promised were as objective as I could make them, I now feel very wary of the fantasy gods with my team sitting atop both models. Please don't shoot the messenger fantasy gods!
Well, it looks like at the top (and the very bottom) things are very well aligned, with the first three spots and the last spot exactly the same. My model does think that Lamarathon Runners are not as far behind as Yahoo does, but does think so for Pole Vaulter's Chubb. Some of that difference, at least for Pole Vaulter's Chubb might come down to the very late season RB acquisition possibly changing fortunes quickly. The final playoff team is seen as the weakest of the contenders, even behind Pole Vaulter's Chubb. I think some of this one comes down to a difference in methodology, which I'll theorize on more here.
Yahoo uses expected points from their model to decide power rankings. This means the difference between the top WR and a benchwarmer or perennial waiver wire player is approximately 6-8 points. My model uses the ranked ordering of a consensus ranking site, where the top WR would count as 1 point in a golf score scheme, while that same benchwarmer might be the 150th overall player. This punishes teams for even a few spots being filled with waiver wire level players (though it only punishes for starter spots, since you have to play them, which means having benchwarmers on your bench is totally fine).
So a team like Ja'Marr SteepleChase, with the WR1 overall and a top RB, but also a lot of bench-level players starting will reflect those "empty" spots more than the top performers. This model seems to weigh consistently good teams over teams that rely on a couple of great players. I think this means that overall it's fair to say that Ja'Marr SteepleChase and those types of teams are maybe sort of okay with the ability to blow up on any given week. That also seems like a fair assesment of a team which hasn't had a weekly score between 110-130 since Week 5. Lucky for this team, they've really seemed to blow up a lot recently, so they only need 3 more of those now.
The final big difference between the models is that I leave out kickers and defense. Unless bye weeks are counted (which shouldn't matter this late in the season anyway), kickers all seem to project 9-10 points no matter what anyway, so I don't think they contribute much to Yahoo power rankings as it is. Defenses are often streamed though, and often vary between 5-10 projected points total. A couple weeks of 5 point differences if you haven't begun streaming your playoff defenses might make a bit of difference in the models. In the end, these are probably small when considering points like Yahoo, but could make a big difference when ranking. My model removes that variance, which probably actually brings it much closer to Yahoo's model.
Final Words Before Playoffs:
Okay, there you have it everyone. Not much movement in the final week, with the key piece Ja'Marr SteepleChase ultimately holding their ground and their playoff spot. Even though the power rankings I had already promised were as objective as I could make them, I now feel very wary of the fantasy gods with my team sitting atop both models. Please don't shoot the messenger fantasy gods!
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