Ja'Marr SteepleChase:
SteepleChase has been pretty mediocre to start the season, not yet cracking 120 points. A couple of close wins against two sub 100 point weeks makes for the third least challenging schedule so far. Like the other two teams with even easier schedules, SteepleChase has relied heavily on luck so far.
Expected Wins: 1.56
Expected Rank: 6
Percent Chance of Ranking: 5%
Verdict: Dumb Luck
Lamarathon Runners:
Has anybody checked in recently on Greg's firstborn child? After three years of championship dominance, this team seems well on its way to lucking into a fourth. Sitting just outside of first place by less than 1 point, Lamrathon managed to beat out probably our best hope of stopping him, not by rising to the occasion, but by sinking the best team in the league for a week.
Expected Wins: 1.72
Expected Rank: 6.29
Percent Chance of Ranking: 14%
Verdict: Dumb Luck
Rachaad White & Blue:
Leading the pack of 2-1 teams, Murica seems to be pretty close to their expected spot. They're in third place, with the second most points in the league, and an Expected Rank between those two figures (2.65). The only sad part is the team's namesake who has been doing poorly enough to be benched (maybe sort of in real life too?)
Expected Wins: 2.28
Expected Rank: 2.65
Percent Chance of Ranking: 82%
Verdict: Don't Suck
Darnold QB1:
QB1 has had a bit of up and down to start, with two weeks over 120 and one under 90. I think because the scores have been so strong or weak, there's not much variation in how many wins or losses this team could incur, no matter who they are playing. They have one of the strongest correlated graphs, with their actual position matching very closely with the spike in their graph.
Expected Wins: 1.72
Expected Rank: 5.21
Percent Chance of Ranking: 51%
Verdict: Don't Suck
Pole Vaulter's Chubb:
The Chubb finally put up fine numbers (first 100+ point game) the very week they didn't need to. Sporting the fewest Points Against, this team is kept afloat with a positive 2-1 record despite also having the second fewest Points For. This seems like the most open & shut case of dumb luck.
Expected Wins: 0.9
Expected Rank: 10.15
Percent Chance of Ranking: 2%
Verdict: Dumb Luck
Purdy Good Olympics:
On the complete opposite side of the above team we have the unluckiest team in the league so far. The only team above 400 points on the season has only 1 win to take home. In raw Points Against numbers, they only had the fifth hardest schedule, but their one win was a 70+ point blowout, and their second loss was by less than 2 points. Just to be clear for the percent chance of ranking here, this team had a 91% chance of being in 3rd or better and a 38% chance of being 1st.
Expected Wins: 2.18
Expected Rank: 2.17
Percent Chance of Ranking: 96%
Verdict: Bad Luck
Yusuf DiKelce:
This team's manager noted two things which are both accurate: Kelce is really not living up to even late second round expectations, having not scored more than 5 points in a half-ppr league this year (Maybe Kelce is an avid undercover Trump supporter who is throwing the season to tank T. Swift's popularity right as she's beefing with that... former president). And secondly, it's completely accurate that this team has the highest Points Against, by a very wide margin. While Purdy Good is the only team above 400 Points For, DiKelce almost hit 450 Points Against. That's 80 more Points Against than the next most beaten down team.
Expected Wins: 1.91
Expected Rank: 3.97
Percent Chance of Ranking: 94%
Verdict: Bad Luck
Dak's Track Attack:
The best of the worst, we get our first "Just Suck". Track Attack actually has the 4th most points in the leauge. That number looks great, until you realize more than half of those points came in one week. (As established, DiKelce does in fact have some pretty bad luck, but being blown out by 80 points will also inflate that Points Against number). It also looks like the pickup of the year was Jauan Jennnings. Before this week, Track Attack was one of the worst teams, with a previous high score of 93 points. We'll see which version of the team we get going forward. If this week was a fluke the verdict was earned, but they may change it quick with this new look.
Expected Wins: 1.18
Expected Rank: 6.71
Percent Chance of Ranking: 94%
Verdict: Just Suck
City of Love:
The big City has a strange camel-back graph. Either they deserve to be where they are, or they would pretty squarely be in 4-5 territory. I'm not quite sure how to account for that, or what it means, but because they'd have a coin toss chance to be in the top 5, I think the verdict is fair.
Expected Wins: 1.63
Expected Rank: 6.0
Percent Chance of Ranking: 94%
Verdict: Bad Luck
Pukaing Up Seine Water:
The team name feels accurate, both in team quality and how the owner feels. The team went from a solid 110+ pair of scores to a laughingstock 60 point week. This is the opposite story from Dak's Track Attack. We'll have to see in this case too if things regress to the mean and they can get back on track, or if this is the new normal going forward. If this is how things are now, the verdict is more than earned.
Expected Wins: 1.27
Expected Rank: 8.52
Percent Chance of Ranking: 84%
Verdict: Just Suck
The 49ers Gold Medal Miners:
With the lowest points, and no week over 105 yet, the Miners continue to share fortunes with their namesake. Neither season is going well. This team has one of the most straightforward graphs of the league right now, with just a 15% chance of being in any better position than they are now. They're just one of two teams with less than 1 expected win, and are almost just half of that too. If 11th wasn't such a bad position itself, I would think the system might even label this "Good Luck" at just a 35% chance of even being this high. Thankfully it avoids that irony.
Expected Wins: 0.55
Expected Rank: 11.22
Percent Chance of Ranking: 35%
Verdict: Just Suck
Wushu Waddle:
With a lackluster point count and the second most Points Against, Wushu is the only team unfortunate enough not to have a win. They haven't put up much of a fight on any given week, but their competitors also haven't given them much of a chance anyway, with each game against about 120+ points (and one close enough I'll give it). Not that they're a top caliber team, but it looks like they should have at least one win to be able to make it somewhere around 9th place.
Expected Wins: 1.1
Expected Rank: 8.59
Percent Chance of Ranking: 100% (go figure)
Verdict: Bad Luck
If everyone sacrificed a child to the fantasy football gods like Greg, maybe we'd all be on even ground. In that hypothetical, here's an updated ranking you can point to if you need to prove your team is actually good, despite the season you've been having (at least if that is the case for you).
No Luck Rankings:
- 1. Purdy Good Olympics
- 2. Rachaad White & Blue
- 3. Yusuf DiKelce
- 4. Darnold QB1
- 5. City of Love
- 6. Lamarathon Runners
- 7. Ja'Marr SteepleChase
- 8. Dak's Track Attack
- 9. Pukaing Up Seine Water
- 10. Wushu Waddle
- 11. Pole Vaulter's Chubb
- 12. The 49ers Gold Medal Miners
Now everyone knows where the luck lies, and a couple of the lower ranked teams can commiserate with each other, while we can all revile Lamarathon, SteepleChase, and The Chubb.
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