We're one week away from the playoffs already! Half the league is still in the hunt too, with 4 teams officially clinching their spots (and the top two teams officially clinching their byes, one deservedly so). Let's take a look at the teams who still need to earn their spot in the last week and just how they might accomplish that:
Pukaing Up Seine Water:
I don't want to jinx myself and say playoffs are in the bag here for this team, but in order to lose their playoff spot, they would have to lose this week, then two of these three scenarios would have to happen: Ja'Marr SteepleChase wins and also beats Pukaing by 45+ points, Wushu Waddle wins and also beats Pukaing by 100+ points, and pretty much the same for The 49ers Gold Medal Miners
Ja'Marr SteepleChase:
The 6th spot is SteepleChase's spot to lose. Here's how they could. If they lose this week and either Wushu Waddle or The 49ers Gold Medal Miners wins, they're just out. If neither of those teams wins though, they could still overtake SteepleChase in points by gaining about 50-60 on them. There's also a scenario where SteepleChase loses, and points-hog Darnold QB1 overtakes them with a win and a point spread of just 2 (very doable).
Wushu Waddle:
This is the position where magic starts needing to happen. A win alone won't get them the spot. In order to take the spot from SteepleChase, they would need to win and SteepleChase would either need to lose or tank 50 points compared to Wushu. Not only do they have this uphill climb, but they need to stave off the competition from below, with The 49ers Gold Medal Miners in a similar position and able to overtake them by doing all the same +7 points.
The 49ers Gold Medal Miners:
Basically everything above +7 points. This team is almost exactly like Wushu Waddle, with the only separation being those 7 points. That means that the gains they'd have to make on SteepleChase would be even more out there in the scenario they all win or lose the same, but they have a manageable spread to cover with Wushu Waddle to make things really interesting if Ja'Marr SteepleChase loses or tanks and somehow wins.
Darnold QB1:
We're getting into real stretch territory here, but this one is still viable and worth chasing. None of the above three teams play each other, so there is not a win guaranteed among the 6-7 teams. This means a losing record could technically make 6th place this year. Darnold QB1 has the points to make it happen if the other three lose, essentially needing just the win and a couple points over Ja'Marr SteepleChase. Since they're playing one of the three teams, and need the win, which means a loss for that team, only two other losses that they need are up to chance.
Rachaad White & Blue:
Like Darnold QB1, a scenario where the three 6-7 teams lose opens up a technical path, and like Darnold QB1, a win this week would guarantee one of those losses. Things are a lot tougher though for Rachaad White & Blue, who has a much larger spread necessary to catch Ja'Marr SteepleChase. Also in the scenario they need where all 6-7 teams lose, Darnold QB1 must win, which means Rachaad White & Blue would need to also catch them in points (something that is about as feasible as catching SteepleChase anyway, but would require two teams to tank, one of them while winning).
I included all 6 who techincally have skin in the game this week, but do have to say only 4 of them are really battling for playoffs here.
I also wanted to take a look back at my mid-season predictions to see what held and what I was way off about (or to make myself feel better, maybe what just changed over time). I made these predictions before we even hit the halfway mark of the season, so be impressed by any that really hit the mark and just look past any whiffs.
Dak's Track Attack:
Prediction 12th
Current 12th
Best 12th
Worst 12th
PF 12th
Poor start, poor finish, not much to say. They're 100+ points behind the 11th PF, though they can be forgiven this year if they come back recharged next time.
The 49ers Gold Medal Miners:
Prediction 11th
Current 8th
Best 6th
Worst 10th
PF 9th
It looks like I underestimated this team some. They also mounted this comeback despite the fact that McCaffrey spent just a few games back before another long-term injury.
Ja'Marr SteepleChase:
Prediction 10th
Current 6th
Best 5th
Worst 9th
PF 4th
It's possible, but would take quite the feat for this team to tumble back to my prediction, needing a loss, then wins from two teams and either wins or 50 point gains from two more.
City of Love:
Prediction 9th
Current 11th
Best 9th
Worst 11th
PF 7th
Another case of bad luck, City of Love hasn't been a playoff-worthy team this season by the numbers, but at least deserves more than only beating out Dak.
Pukaing Up Seine Water:
Prediction 8th
Current 5th
Best 3rd
Worst 6th
PF 3rd
Ha, I fooled the fantasy gods with my prediction! Actually, I think a couple of things like Bijan Robinson's slow start and Puka Nacua's absence suppressed this team's abilities to start the season. It would have been a pretty big ego to predict comfortable playoffs while in 8th at the halfway mark.
Pole Vaulter's Chubb:
Prediction 7th
Current 4th
Best 3rd
Worst 5th
PF 11th
Well, there's a huge discrepancy here. As far as performance, my prediction seems spot on (with so many wins early on, being near last in points would probably keep them on that playoff borderline still). Their luck has continued through the regular season though, and with the huge waiver wire pickup to end the season, it might just get them all the way. Honestly I'll be pretty sad though if our 11th place team for points wins it all, maybe even sadder than if Greg gets a 4-peat or whatever he's on now.
Wushu Waddle:
Prediction 6th
Current 7th
Best 6th
Worst 9th
PF 8th
While I didn't forsee The 49ers Gold Medal Miners' ascent, I did catch this one. I don't know if they'll be able to make it all the way back to the playoffs, but as a former 6th place playoff team after a 0-3 start, I'm rooting for the underdog here.
Rachaad White & Blue:
Prediction 5th
Current 10th
Best 6th
Worst 11th
PF 10th
My prediction seems way off, but in a different direction than everyone thought weeks ago. At the time of my prediction, this team was riding high in second place at 5-2 and a tumble to 5th place seemed like a big deal. I don't think anyone could have predicted such a fall here, with 6 straight losses since my prediction almost putting them out of the playoffs (though technically not entirely).
Darnold QB1:
Prediction 4th
Current 9th
Best 6th
Worst 11th
PF 5th
Well my prediction was a bit off here, but it was actually pretty close to their points position, especially if you consider they're just 2 points away from sitting in 4th there. I'll call this a win for predictions, even if it's a loss for Darnold QB1.
Purdy Good Olympics:
Prediction 3rd
Current 1st
Best 1st
Worst 2nd
PF 1st
While I thought this team had some really bad luck to start, I was worried that their team might start to fall off some over the season, so while they'd gain, I didn't know if it was enough to close the gap, especially for Lamarathon Runners, but they have fully closed it one week from the finish. Now just to keep it closed.
Yusuf DiKelce:
Prediction 2nd
Current 3rd
Best 3rd
Worst 4th
PF 2nd
This team has continued to be solidly second-place worthy, scoring the second most points in the league, and coming back from a similar early season deficit as Purdy Good Olympics to keep a high value playoff spot.
Lamarathon Runners:
Prediction 1st
Current 2nd
Best 1st
Worst 2nd
PF 6th
Their luck still hasn't run dry. While their PF says "techincally playoffs", their record gives them a clear bye no matter what happens this week. They also still have a chance to win back 1st this week, especially since they are head to head with Purdy Good Olympics anyway, so a win guarantees 1st, despite the vast point difference.
Good luck to all the playoff contenders fighting for 6th, but bad luck to anyone trying to take my spot. See you all next week when we make more predictions for playoffs!
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