Over the season, injuries happen. Some players just disappoint, and others become stars out of nowhere. Some players are able to capture that lightning in a bottle, while others make some really bad moves, though that's typically only apparent in hindsight.
Last year, a couple of waiver wire heroes really boosted their teams, especially a pair of Rams picked up in the early season. Some of these gems turned into keepers this year, which makes sense, since the waiver wire often has some of the most potential for values out of the late rounds, or even undrafted. Maybe some of the good pickups from this year's list will stay on the team for years to come as a keeper.
To start, I'm curious to look at how active team managers have been in our league, and wonder whether more activity has actually given a leg up this season. How many moves has each team made so far (and their current standings):
Pukaing Up Siene Water: 32 (6th)
Ja'Marr SteepleChase: 23 (8th)
Lamarathon Runners: 22 (1st)
Darnold QB1: 21 (7th)
Rachaad White & Blue: 17 (5th)
Pole Vaulter's Chubb: 15 (4th)
Wushu Waddle: 13 (11th)
The 49ers Gold Medal Miners: 11 (10th)
Yusuf DiKelce: 9 (3rd)
City of Love: 9 (9th)
Purdy Good Olympics: 8 (2nd)
Dak's Track Attack: 5 (12th)
Some teams tend to skew the results, with owners of Pukaing Up Siene Water and Lamarathon Runners seeming to be near the top of move counts every year, in my subjective experience.
That said, I think the clearest correlation between moves and position here is among those teams in the playoff hunt. Besides Lamarathon Runners in 1st place, the other top 6 movers are the 4th-8th positions. If you take the top 5 movers, besides Lamarathon Runners, that's 5th-8th position, all of the 5-4 and 4-5 records.
My theory here is that some teams are near the top because they started the season with some of the strongest teams, and just haven't needed to make moves to win so far. Teams near the bottom are in that position partly because they haven't made the moves to improve their teams out of that position. And the teams in the hunt have needed to fill gaps and stay competetive. These are the scrappy teams this year.
So what gems have we found? What duds did we take a chance on? And what players were we not patient enough with? Also, what players have been big teases this season?
Let's take a look at some notable team additions from the waiver wire and free agency over the season. These are players that either have made an impact already, or really look poised to make one over the rest of the season now.
Notable Adds:
Josh Downs (FA) Darnold QB1 (Oct 26)
Calvin Ridley (FA) Pukaing Up Seine Water (Oct 26)
Cedric Tillman (FA) Pukaing Up Seine Water (Oct 24)
DeAndre Hopkins ($7) Lamarathon Runners (Oct 25)
Kirk Cousins ($11) Wushu Waddle (Oct 30)
Cade Otton ($4) Ja'Marr SteepleChase (Oct 9)
Tyrone Tracy Jr (FA) Pukaing Up Seine Water (Oct 4)
Kareem Hunt ($31) Lamarathon Runners (Oct 2)
Tucker Kraft ($12) Darnold QB1 (Oct 2)
Darnell Mooney ($23) Lamarathon Runners (Sept 25)
Tank Bigsby (FA) Darnold QB1 (Sept 23)
Baker Mayfield (FA) Yusuf DiKelce (Sept 13)
Allen Lazard (FA) City of Love (Sept 11)
Denver (FA) City of Love (Sept 11)
Bucky Irving ($1) Wushu Waddle (Sept 7)
Jordan Mason (FA) Rachaad White & Blue (Aug 31)
I think everyone on that list has had some level of impact since they've been picked up, but a few stand out quite a bit, and some of them seem to follow similar patterns:
Kareem Hunt is the second highest FAAB buy so far at $31. Averaging 18 points over 4 games since the pickup, with more than 20 carries and at least one TD every week played, this seems like one of the great pickups of the year. Lamarathon Runners had to battle for this one too, beating out offers of $28, $27, and $22 (along with a measly $5 from Pole Vaulter's Chubb). That's almost half the league bidding on this guy. This boon may only last a couple more weeks, but even what's been had so far has more than paid off. By the numbers, Darnell Mooney has been a good pickup too, but he's been on the bench for every 10+ point score, so the benefit hasn't materialized.
Tucker Kraft has been a top 5 TE, who was originally picked up for just $4 early in the season by Ja'Marr SteepleChase, dumped, then reaquired by Darnold QB1 for a more appropriate $12. Not to worry, Ja'Marr SteepleChase has since nabbed the number 3 TE (Cade Otton) for the same $4.
Another big contender for best value is Baker Mayfield, still the QB2 so far despite losing Godwin for the season and Evans for a few games.
Though he's slowed down in recent weeks, Jordan Mason initially made a huge case as the early season league changer. With CMC returning soon and an injury of his own, his time in the spotlight is likely over, but he provided some great early value.
The only defense on this list is worth mentioning, since Denver has been great and definitely worth that free pickup.
I will also be interested to see how the real world trades end up affecting waiver wire pickups over time. We saw some big moves, and the DeAndre Hopkins move seems to have worked for multiple players, with a better role apparently in store for himself, but also a better time for Calvin Ridley. Similar circumstances seem to be the case for Amari Cooper, opening up a big opportunity for Cedric Tillman. Pukaing Up Seine Water has been banking on both of those vacated sets of targets, though the resulting points have been wasted so far on the bench.
Speaking of Calvin Ridley, there have been two instances of notable WW / FA pickups being quickly reaquired by the same team. Ridley was dumped right before the Hopkins trade announcement, then subsequently scooped back up. The same thing happened early on with Bucky Irving, where Wushu Waddle dumped him then got him back for $1 two days later. The LAC Defense was worth the shuffle that week too by the way.
There were plenty of duds, as expected on the waiver wire. They can't all be winners, and this is a very speculative meta-sport. Some of these players turned out to be huge reaches though, with lots of wasted FAAB dollars.
Big Bucks that didn't pay off:
DeMario Douglas ($18)
Cameron Dicker ($10)
Carson Steele ($27)
Isaiah Likely ($37)
Jalen McMilan ($17)
Brandon Aiyuk ($5)
Carson Steele was the initial heir apparent after Pacheco went down for a long IR. Who wouldn't want the new starting running back for the Kansas City Chiefs? Steele quickly literally fumbled his chances multiple times before being benched, paving the way for a big Kareem Hunt return.
Isaiah Likely burst on the scene in the first game this year, making Mark Andrews look like a terrible draft pick. In the biggest FAAB bid this season, Darnold QB1 overpaid at $37, with the next highest offers of $16, $16, $15, and $9 (another one with almost half the league vying for the player). Darnold QB1 played both TEs from the same team the next week, with Andrews in the flex, soon after, dropping Likely altogether. Besides another random 14 point game, Isiah Likely hasn't scored more than 3, and Mark Andrews has regained his featured role.
Brandon Aiyuk is typically worth $5, so why is he here? After a season ending injury, Yusuf DiKelce later picked him up for a nickel and now has him taking up bench space (not even IR, with Godwin taking that spot). There's not much hope for Aiyuk as a keeper, with a cost next year of a second rounder, so this seems like wasted FAAB and bench space.
Dicker the Kicker had a high valuation from City of Love a couple weeks ago, with the highest price I've seen for a kicker. Most kickers don't make it through their bye week, then can be safely reacquired from FA the next week, but this was a hefty price for a position with the most depth.
For the most part, if a player is good, they stay on the team, so there haven't been many huge drops. In this league, that wouldn't fly anyway, with lots of likely calls to the commish if it happened. That said, there were a few surprises.
Notable Drops:
Blake Corum
Mark Andrews
Devin Singletary
Anthony Richardson
Jordan Mason
Many of these players started relatively high in drafts, but just didn't pan out. Blake Corum is a rookie on an offense that's known to swap out RBs, but their starter has continued to be great. Anthony Richardson was so bad he was benched, one of the few keepers to no longer be on the team. Devin Singletary has slowly been overtaken by Tyrone Tracy Jr (featured on the pickups list above).
After a terrible first month, Mark Andrews has really picked it back up. He's listed as the TE6 now (after an extra game last night, so this will probably change), but was the TE10 going into the week. Despite that, he's floated around between teams and is currently on the waiver wire again.
Jordan Mason was one of the biggest pickups of the season, but that actually makes him one of the biggest drops too, with Pukaing Up Seine Water picking him up before the CMC injury and dropping him for Dalvin Cook. Bad move in hindsight with CMC being injured right after, and Rachaad White & Blue taking full advantage of the injury risk (they had also picked him up before the injury).
I don't think there has been anything as substantial this season as past seasons, and definitely not anything as keeper worthy, with big values like Kareem Hunt and Jordan Mason likely not lasting between seasons. It's been a relatively quiet one on the waiver wire overall this year, but the few big ones have been difference makers. And there's still time for playoff winners to come around. Take a look at your FAAB everyone and get spending!
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