I'm not going to go into any real depth for this, since it isn't the focus of the week's analysis, but I wanted to take a quick look to see if a larger sample size has gotten people closer to where they should be or if our season is still as unfair as it seemed the last time I reviewed "Bad Luck or Just Suck". A quick look at our standings and relative deservedness before we dive into this week's main story:
1. Pole Vaulter's Chubb - Dumb Luck
2. Lamarathon Runners - Dumb Luck
3. Rachaad White & Blue - Don't Suck
4. Purdy Good Olympics - Bad Luck
5. Yusuf DiKelce - Bad Luck
6. Darnold QB1 - Don't Suck
7. Pukaing Up Seine Water - Just Suck
8. Ja'Marr SteepleChase- Dumb Luck
9. City of Love - Bad Luck
10. Wushu Waddle - Just Suck (Bad Luck previously)
11. The 49ers Gold Medal Miners - Bad Luck (Just Suck previously)
12. Dak's Track Attack - Just Suck
Despite dropping 7 places, it's actually kind of funny to see Ja'Marr SteepleChase still labeled "Dumb Luck" in 8th. Pole Vaulter's Chubb has just continued to increase his luck, moving up 4 more spots into 1st. The only label changes in the app were Wushu Waddle and The 49ers Gold Medal Miners, which flipped between "Just Suck" and "Bad Luck" in opposite directions. I think the cutoff for "Don't Suck" vs "Just Suck" meaning you're in the right position is at 6th place, so I wonder if Darnold QB1 and Pukaing Up Seine Water were switched (somewhat possible with "just" a 28 point gulf between them) whether they would swap labels or if things would start being attributed to luck at that borderline.
On to the main event, I sometimes like to take a look back and see what things would look like if one of the players in our league happened upon a crystal ball. What would the dream team (at least through the first 6 weeks here) look like if someone picked all the right players within our draft restrictions. That means the dream team can't just be all the first rounders. There were a few cut off for that reason, but it actually didn't affect things much anyway.
Looking at the list of top scorers so far, and where they were drafted, I came up with a list of starters who put up the most points together this season. While this theoretical player foresaw all the best draft picks, we limited them to just starters to reduce some of the math that we'd have to do to figure out weekly plays among our bench players. One of the biggest concerns is that while the second scoring TE for instance might be the next best draft pick on the bench, another might have complemented the first TE best for staggered spike weeks. This would be way too much to track, and even opens up the possibility for two positional players to combine for an overall better set of points than the top positional player. I don't have time for that.
For our fantasy draft team, our theoretical fantasy oracle was able to draft them ahead of where they were drafted, but obviously not behind, and I used full rounds to determine draftablility, instead of picking a draft position for this player. So what is the team and the draft order?
Round 1: Derrick Henry
Drafted near the end of the round because of his "advanced" age, Derrick Henry continues to dominate with the same absurd level of workload he's been handling for years. At 23.7 points ahead of second place (who is also on the team, and another supposedly "over the hill" back), he's averaging almost 4 fantasy points a week over everyone else at the position.
Honorable mentions: Saquon Barkley and Ja'Marr Chase were both also top tier players from the first round. Without any previous rounds to use, we couldn't reach for them and get them on the team.
Round 2: Lamar Jackson
He actually slipped into the third round in our draft, but in the only case where we actually had to reach for a star player, another was needed in the same round. As expected, his dominance has come from rushing yardage, where he quickly separates with 81 yards over the second rushing QB (Jayden Daniels), which at just 6 games in is an average of 13.5 more yards per game. By rushing QB5 (Jalen Hurts), he's already doubled the rushing yardage (403 vs 196). He's also been pretty decent as a passer this year, at 7th for passing yards and only 249 fewer of those than passing leader (Geno Smith?!)
Round 3: Nico Collins
Despite missing this last week, Nico Collins is WR4 overall, and because of JaMarr Chase's absence at the top of the list (and just barely beating Jordan Mason out for the flex position by less than a point) he makes the squad. He will inevitably slip while he sits on IR, but it was an impressive first 5 weeks, where he would have actually only been beaten out by JaMarr Chase in that time.
Round 4: Alvin Kamara
The second best running back through 6 weeks also has a large gap between them and the next (Saquon Barkley, who was disqualified for the list), with a difference there of 21.2 points. This actually makes Henry's dominance even more impressive, with a total difference there between him and 3rd of 44.9 points (almost 8 points over all non-Kamara RBs). Kamara has been trending down on efficiency and usage every year, but the usage (and touchdowns) has spiked back up this time to make him super relevant again.
Round 5: George Kittle
I was really hoping I'd get to include Brock Bower on the list, but not only is Kittle still 8 points ahead of him (about 1 extra point per week and some change), but Kittle has done so in just 5 games (at least I assume he didn't just get a goose egg week 3). The two TD game last week definitely helped cement him at the top.
Round 6: Chris Godwin
As a Chris Godwin owner last year and a Mike Evans owner this year, I'm actually really disappointed in this one. After very consistent lackluster numbers each week last year, Godwin has suddenly come alive again. He's getting targeted like crazy and making those yards. The only downside (and my only redemption) is that Evans still gets the touchdowns. But really, with Baker having a season here, there's enough to go around.
Round 7: Jayden Reed
No one knew which Packer would be worth rostering this year, if any. As usual, Christian Watson is injured every other week, and Doubs has been underwhelming besides this week. Reed made his mark in the first week, and has been consistently good since. This just seems like a good value, and a great pick from an oracle looking through the murky Green Bay waters.
Round 8: Brandon Aubrey
Up through this round, things have actually stacked very neatly, with only Lamar Jackson needing to make room for Nico Collins, and no reaches otherwise, with a star player per round. Besides the first round, which is expected to have multiple stars, there was no one who had to be left out either. I'm not choosing bench players though, and we've reached the end of the non-kicker non-defense starting roster, which will inevitably mean reaches the way we draft. (Auto draft would actually have us start picking them up here though). On to the actual player, Brandon Aubrey has been the elite kicker of the season, well worth the actual one round reach in the 13th round before everyone started drafting kickers in the 14th. He kicked the second longest regular season field goal at 65 yards, just behind Justin Tucker's 2021 66 yarder.
Round 9: Minnesota Vikings
The top defense every year (so far in this one, with lots left to play) always seems to be one of the unexpected teams. The top-rated Baltimore Ravens going into the season are currently 21st among defenses. The Vikings haven't fully separated themselves from the pack, with Chicago and Green Bay just 1 and 2 points behind respectively, but after that top tier, there are a couple of noticeable dropoffs in tiers.
Now that we have our starting team:
QB - Lamar Jackson
WR - Chris Godwin
WR - Jayden Reed
RB - Derrick Henry
RB - Alvin Kamara
TE - George Kittle
Flex - Nico Collins
K - Brandon Aubrey
DEF - Minnesota Vikings
Let's see how the dream team played through the first 6 weeks. Total PF (points for) this season has been 982.3. Among our actual teams, Purdy Good Olympics is still in the lead, with 782.15 points. That's a difference so far of almost exactly 200 points (200.15 to be precise). This means the dream team averaged 163.72 points per week. (Purdy Good Team's 130.36 average is pretty nice too though, to be honest).
While the average points per week was 163.72, there are some ups and downs weekly for every team. In this case, the downs looked like most teams' ups. Here's the weekly breakdown:
Week 1: 178.05
Week 2: 185.35
Week 3: 140.45 (George Kittle out)
Week 4: 186.10
Week 5: 146.60
Week 6: 145.75 (Nico Collins & Minnesota out)
With dominant scores like that, has anyone actually beat this team at all this season? The answer is: barely. Here's the list:
Week 3: Dak's Track Attack (185.65) and Rachaad White & Blue (147.00)
Week 5: Purdy Good Olympics (152.5)
Week 6: Yusuf DiKelce (146.65)
There were 3 weeks where anyone would have beat this team, with just one of those where two teams would have, accounting for 4 better scores overall. It's possible that the dream team could have lost 3 games this season, with a record so far then of 3-3. Given their PF total, they would bump Purdy Good Olypics out of 4th. If Purdy Good Olympics can draw a "Bad Luck" tag in 4th, I think the dream team would too.
I wonder if any oracle in some other league out there on Yahoo did actually draft this set of players, and I wonder if they realize what they've got. I'll also be interested to see how many of these players end up on the final dream team at the end of the season, or how many end up on the most championship teams by then.
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