My last attempt to not talk bad about my future opponent to avoid a jinx didn't work, but I'm still going to try to avoid it anyway just in case, so they will remain unnamed in this column (as above). We also had a self-proclaimed "Noodle Fight" as well, which is probably technically true when the match consists of two of the worst three performances of the week, but an average score of almost 100 points between the teams makes it a pretty al dente noodle fight.
So was this a big week for the offenses? If so, how big? Let's take a look at the numbers!
I only have historical data on this account going back two years (Yahoo handles account management very poorly and I lost a lot of context in the switch), but using two years of historical data, we find the average total PF (points for) among teams was very consistent, with an average PF of 1574.87 in the 2022 season and 1580.52 in 2023. Taken over 14 games in the regular season, those average out to 112.49 and 112.89 points per week among all teams. That's pretty consistent. Also, now you know, if you scored less than 112 points, it was technically a bad week. (My previous mental cutoff had been somewhere around triple digits.)
Has this year been muted compared to past years? Was this week big compared to the rest of the season? Was it big compared to the previous season averages? For the historical data, I took some end-of-season numbers, but I managed a better weekly breakdown for this one (much easier with just 5 weeks and an easier interface). I'm going to start with the total and average scores each week (the total score might look close to the end of season PF from previous seasons, but that's just because the 12 teams playing in a week is close to the 14 weeks of performance added up. The total score doesn't really mean much in this context except as a step to average. I will use it more later though.)
Total Score and Average Score by Week:
Week 1: 1303.25 / 12 = 108.6
Week 2: 1342.60 / 12 = 111.88
Week 3: 1312.85 / 12 = 109.4
Week 4: 1358.55 / 12 = 113.21
Week 5: 1435.25 / 12 = 119.6
Median Score (Average between 6th & 7th):
Week 1: 100.45
Week 2: 112.58
Week 3: 101.33
Week 4: 114.15
Week 5: 124.45
Weeks with a vastly different mean and median scores often have some big outliers (like Dak's Track Attack doing a lot of heavy lifting Week 3 to pull the average up 8 points over the median with his 185.65 point performance, or this last week with some unknown team doing the opposite and pulling the average down 5 points from the median).
The first three weeks of the season were indeed muted compared to our previous baseline of ~112.5, with none of those weeks hitting that average, and the average among them a few points below at 109.96. That said, a 2.5 point difference really seems minimal. These were really just slightly below average weeks.
It looks like the uplift in the NFL offense started last week, with a slightly above average week already, but really took off this week, with an average a full 7 points above typical, and the median beating our baseline by about 12 points! Not only did we really crush on points, but this was during the league's first bye week (more on that later). This last week brought the average back up to almost exactly the baseline, with this season's average score back up to 112.54 points.
By the numbers, this was definitely a big week for NFL offensive players, but let's take an even deeper look. My own speculation especially for the first week, with the lowest median score (100.45) is that along with maybe a muted start to the NFL season, we may not have chosen the best plays. This is right after the draft, where we finally get to see what offseason speculation was right and what was way off. Was it really that bad in the NFL or had we just not calibrated yet? How many points did we leave on the bench? Have we gotten any better as the season has progressed? Let's see.
Total and Average Bench Scores:
Week 1: 557.30 / 12 = 46.44
Week 2: 498.60 / 12 = 41.55
Week 3: 539.45 / 12 = 44.95
Week 4: 545.30 / 12 = 45.44
Week 5: 411.25 / 12 = 34.27
Bench Score / Avg Score (as percentage):
Week 1: 43%
Week 2: 37%
Week 3: 41%
Week 4: 40%
Week 5: 29%
As we can see from these numbers, Week 5 was much more efficient compared to previous weeks. I do wonder how much of that is accounted for with injuries and the first bye week of the season. We definitely have more zeroes on the bench now than we did in the first week.
NFL teams have varying levels of offense, so for any given bye week, this may be more or less impactful, but considering 4 teams were out this week, that's 2 fewer games (14 games instead of 16). If we were to adjust for that, Week 5 would be more like an adjusted 470 points (411.25 * 16 / 14). Still our lowest bench total by almost 30 points. This may be a pretty wild assumption, but if I added a fully injured player per team onto that and adjusted again on top of the first adjustment, we might get something more like a second adjusted point total of 564 (470 * 6 / 5, assuming one bench spot out of the 6 on each team houses an injured player). With both of those adjustments, this would actually be the most benched points in a week, barely beating out Week 1.
Also of note, I took a quick look at how many QBs are on the bench, assuming benched QBs might sway this number the most. From last week's numbers, I saw we drafted 21 QBs this year, and while one is on IR (awaiting possible forced retirement) our total as of Week 5 is still 21 rostered QBs. Very consistent.
So maybe we can't get much from our bench decisions after all. It's certainly easier to decide between benching your IR player and active one, and bye weeks also make decisions a bit easier. Still, it took quite a bit of adjustment to get the numbers back up to what we've seen before. Maybe bench management is getting a bit better over the season as we might expect.
Finally, regardless of how well our league manages its teams and how many points are rostered vs squandered on the bench, how did the NFL do offensively? Was it really a big week for the NFL, or just in our league? Maybe adding up and averaging all the active and benched points in our league will correct for all of our own good or bad start/sit decisions and give us the raw offensive power of the NFL, or something closer to it.
Total Rostered Score (Active + Benched):
Week 1: 1860.55
Week 2: 1841.20
Week 3: 1852.30
Week 4: 1903.85
Week 5: 1846.50
Looking at those raw numbers, maybe the NFL wasn't such a big hit this week after all. Maybe we were just really on point as a league this week. I feel an adjustment for the bye week is most appropriate in this place though, since it does affect the league offense as a whole, regardless of our play. With the adjustment, we're looking at 2110.30 (1846.5 * 16 / 14) adjusted points Week 5! I think that does close the case then. Adjusted for bye weeks, this week saw 200+ points more than we've seen before, even last week in Week 4, where we already saw a slightly above average week.
Great week from the NFL and for the most part, great week from us. After looking at all of this data, I have an extra new goal for the season (on top of trying to win and stopping Greg at all costs), which is to beat the last two historical averages (112.49 and 112.89) and top an average 113 points for the season. I hope everyone works toward that goal with me, except of course on weeks where you play against me. You can forget the goal for a week then and resume the following week.
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