This week, on top of the usual matchup color commentary, I'll add some some early keeper speculation. We're almost halfway through the season if you include playoffs, so I think we've had enough time to start speculating, and if, like me, you find both your keepers and your team in the bottom portion of the ranks, now might be a good time to look into a few trades to bolster your prospects next year. If you're looking toward playoffs, it's an opportunity to check out the fire sales.
Matchups
Hazers vs Chipped by Billy G
The Hazers emerge from their first noodle fight victorious. This is their first week in double digits, but they still scraped by beating the only other team to score lower. Let down by the usually good Davis and Jacobs, and with a donut at kicker, Chipped by Billy G will likely bounce back fine for points, but this was a hard loss when already in 10th.
Kelsey Lohan's Ghost vs KY
Last week, Chipped by Billy G had a great week, scoring second on the week and getting absolutely crushed anyway by a 201 point week from The Loch Ness Burrow. With a bit of copy cat syndrome, Kelsey Lohan's Ghost followed that up with our league's second 200+ point week, also against this week's second highest scorer. They say misery loves company, and now Billy G has some company with KY.
Jets Fuel Cant [sic] Melt Steel vs Ballderberg
With Amon St. Brown back, and probably the best RB combo (despite losing Breece Hall last week) Ballderberg scored well, but suffered yet another 1 point loss. (Fun fact: he's 2 points behind 3rd place in scoring). Jets Fuel Cant [sic] Melt Steel. AJ Brown scored almost 40 points to keep the game within reach on Monday, and Nick Chubb closed. (If only Joe Mixon could do the same...)
Ancient Allens vs Momo
Proving that he's not dead yet, Derrick Henry tossed Ancient Allens on his back yet again and carried them to another victory. Taysom Hill continues to be the weirdest tight end in football. After a strong start, it's looking like Momo is starting to run out of options at RB. Damien Harris and Chase Edmonds are not a combo I envy.
The Loch Ness Burrow vs Roswell LAMARtians
The Loch Ness Burrow took it upon themselves to personally dethrone the Roswell LAMARtians. Despite Jonathan Taylor looking like a draft bust, The Loch Ness Burrow is the highest point-scorer on the year and sitting in first. After a hot 5-0 start, Roswell LAMARtians has lost 2 of their last 3, though this one can be chalked up to bad bye weeks, with all the missing Chargers. The Mark Andrews injury didn't help.
Oh Godwin He Can See vs Bye Week
Bye Week almost got away with another name-defying win, but was ultimately shot down by their former disappointment, DJ Moore. His revenge week came just in time for Oh Godwin He Can See, who outside of Moore and Waddle had a terrible week, especially with less than 4 points from Carr. Oh Godwin He Can See drags Bye Week back down with them, but doesn't quite get the 11th / 12th swap.
Keeper Speculation
I’ll start out by listing the possible keepers I see on each team, in order that I think they work as keepers (along with their draft pick from this year), with some commentary. Then I’ll rank each team’s top keepers!
Roswell LAMARtians
Dameon Pierce - 4th
Tyler Lockett - 9th
The Seattle offense was apparently very underrated this year. Geno might be a surprise keeper, and Lockett may benefit as a keeper since he was so devalued in the draft this year. If we had drafted two weeks earlier, before Dameon Pierce shot up the board, he may have been the best keeper value here, but even spending a 3rd round pick next year may be worthwhile, if he keeps up this momentum.
Oh Godwin He Can See
Jaylen Waddle - 4th
There aren't many on this team performing above their draft value, but if Miami continues to stay hot in the passing game, all three players (Tagovailoa, Waddle, and Hill, in that order) might be decent keeper values.
Bye Week
Isiah Pacheco - 14th
George Pickens - 11th
Brian Robinson Jr. - 13th
All of these are pretty speculative. None of them has broken out yet, and the only real reason they can be considered for keepers right now is solely their super low draft cost. The best bet is that CEH continues his downward trend and Isiah Pacheco gets a chance at lead RB on a top tier team.
The Loch Ness Burrow
D'Onta Foreman - undrafted
Kenneth Walker III - 10th
I'm giving an early crowning for this year's waiver wire king, The Loch Ness Burrow. Two weeks ago, D'Onta Foreman was not on the radar at all, but with that CMC trade and if he continues to play like he has the past two weeks, he may turn into one of the best keepers in the league. The Seattle backfield might be murky again next year with Penny back from injury, but Kenneth Walker has made a good case so far to stay the starter.
Momo
Tua Tagovailoa - 15th
Jalen Hurts - 6th
Jakobi Meyers - 13th
Tua Tagovailoa has been great this year when he's played. If he decides next year that he hasn't had enough brain damage, a 14th round pick is a cheap price for a good QB. Jalen Hurts wasn't cheap this year, but a 5th round pick might be a value if he's one of the top 2 or 3 QBs on the board next year. Jakobi Meyers isn't flashy, but 13th is not a bad price for a WR 2/3 next year.
Ancient Allens
Taysom Hill* - undrafted
DK Metcalf - 5th
(Derrick Henry - 1st)
There are some big caveats to this one, but if he is labeled a TE again next year, and if they continue to use him for all the weird plays, and if TE sucks as much next year as it does this year, then Taysom Hill for your 15th pick could be worthwhile. He's such a hard player to predict though, and I have no clue where (or if) he'll end up on the draft board next year. There's not much value paying my first round pick for a first rounder, but I just wanted to mention that Derrick Henry seems like he was a value this year after everyone thought he was too old. DK Metcalf has benefitted from surprisingly good Geno play this year, and a 4th round price might be a value for him at this rate.
Hazers
Rhamondre Stevenson - 5th
(Saquon Barkley - 2nd)
Hazers reached a couple rounds up getting Rhamondre Stevenson in the 5th, but it looks like it was definitely worth it, both this year and as a possible keeper for next year. The RB7 on the year so far is definitely a bargain in the 5th, and even in the 4th next year if he stays hot. Because we pay a round up for players, I don't know if Saquon Barkley will hold much value for a 1st round pick, unless maybe someone is late in the first round and wants to reach up. He's definitely a value this year though.
Chipped by Billy G
Josh Jacobs - 4th
Miles Sanders - 8th
Geno Smith - undrafted
Billy G has some big values to choose from. Josh Jacobs was definitely drafted too low in the 4th, and will likely still be a good value next year for a 3rd. Miles Sanders won't be drafted as high as Jacobs next year, but is still good and comes at a huge discount with a 7th round price tag. Geno Smith isn't going to be coming off the board with the elite QBs next year, but I could see him going with that second or third tier in the 7th-9th round, and he'd be a value there after being undrafted this year.
Ballderberg
Breece Hall - 4th
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 5th
If Ballderberg keeps him on their bench for the year (luckily there's an IR spot for that) Breece Hall was looking like the value of the year before he went down, so will likely be a value next year if he gets healthy. Amon-Ra St. Brown has had some injury trouble of his own, but has played well enough that his discount by those unsold on his prowess still seems like it could carry over well into next year, in the form of a 4th round price.
Jets Fuel Cant [sic] Melt Steel
Chris Olave - 10th
AJ Brown - 3rd
Chris Olave has been great this year, and he didn't cost much in the draft. A WR2 (with lots of upside, this is his rookie year after all) for a 9th round would be a bargain. AJ Brown snuck into the 3rd round this year, which means that he would only cost a 2nd round next year. Not many WRs go in the 1st though, so while a value, it might be minimal.
Kelsey Lohan's Ghost
DeAndre Hopkins - 9th
Travis Etienne Jr. - 4th
Tony Pollard - 7th
Khalil Herbert - 13th
He was cheap because of the absence to start the year, but assuming no more suspension trouble, an 8th round for DeAndre Hopkins would be an absolute steal. Travis Etienne Jr. has broken out, handily paying off his 4th round price. Next year, a 3rd round would still be a price I'm willing to pay. If the Cowboys cast off Elliot next year, Pollard may make a case as the best value keeper, but as it is, he's still been a decent value getting better every year, and a 6th is relatively cheap next year. Khalil Herbert might still have a Montgomery problem next year. If he does, there may not be much value here, but if they pick the better back or he gets traded (both pretty speculative) that value would shoot up quite a bit.
KY
Tyreek Hill - 3rd
Alexander Mattison - 11th
Antonio Gibson - 6th
Tyreek Hill slipped into the 3rd round this year because of QB speculation. The Dolphins have disproved the discount. Hill might cost a 2nd round as a keeper next year, but that could still be a great value for one of the most elite WRs in the NFL. Alexander Mattison always seems to be great when Dalvin Cook inevitably gets injured for a few weeks a year. He may just be the perennial backup on the Vikings, but if that ever changes, he would likely be worth a lot more than a 10th round pick. Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson will likely continue to devalue each other next year, but if anything changes and he can run as a lead back again, Antonio Gibson could be worth quite a bit with that pass-catching ability.
Keeper Tiers
Here’s my rankings for the top keepers each team has, along with their draft cost next year.
Tier 1: (Draft Steals)
DeAndre Hopkins (8th)
D'Onta Foreman (15th)
Chris Olave (9th)
Tier 2: (RB1s in RB2.5 territory)
Rhamondre Stevenson (4th)
Josh Jacobs (3rd)
Breece Hall (3rd)
Dameon Pierce (3rd)
Tier 3: (The Dolphins)
Tua Tagolaivia (15th)
Jaylen Waddle (3rd)
Tyreek Hill (2nd)
Tier 4: (Purely Speculative)
Isiah Pacheco (15th)
Taysom Hill (15th)
Pickup of the Week
D'Onta Foreman. It was technically last week, but this week really revealed it to be a great pickup.
Honorable Mention:
Kareem Hunt (maybe). If he gets traded to a team that will feature him, Hunt will likely be great value for $5.
Shameful Benching of the Week
D'Onta Foreman had a good week before this, and broke out this week with almost 33 points.
Honorable Mention:
Stefon Diggs. I think Hazers didn't look at their lineup again after last week's Bye.
Comments
Post a Comment